Obama's America

The wind of change is blowing through America. Whether it is a light summer breeze or a strong gale remains to be seen.

Barack Obama, the 44th President of the United States of America

"The wind of change is blowing through the United States of America, whether we like it or not, this growth of liberal consciousness is a political fact."

Don't believe me? See for yourself.

McKenna will not run (Surprise!)

The Globe and Mail is reporting that Frank McKenna will not run for the leader of the Liberal party. McKenna's candidacy seemed to good to be true (from a Liberal's prospective), and a potential nightmare for the conservatives. It turned out that those rumours reported widely in the press were either made up or inflated.

McKenna was the only one who could have effectively rebuild the Liberal Party and possibly win the next election. Now it looks like it will be a race between Rae and Ignatieff (unless John Manley joins the race), and the fight will be between those who want to move the Liberals (further) to the left, and those who want to stick it closer to the centre-right. It looks like the Liberals will be pulled apart, which from my prospective would be a very interesting and slightly satisfying spectacle.

Obama for President

I have finally decided who I think would be the best President for the United States (and for the world). Although I'm probably closer to John McCain in principle, but he failed to impress me.

The Republican Party is corrupt and tired and needs some radical reform. I thought that McCain, being a self described maverick would have renewed the Republican Party, but he hasn't. The Republicans have to get over the whole Christian conservative thing as their main planks (You don't have to ditch social conservatism, just get rid of the whole bible thing) Maybe if they came a cross as a bit more moderate, (ie. not alienating those who are not evangelicals!), they would get some more support from the northern 'secular' middle class. Also, their constant emphasis on "Joe the plumber" is starting to get very annoying. I know that they're trying to appeal to the silent majority, but come on, not everyone is a self employed tradesmen.

Now for the problem with John McCain. Since the Republicans are a disaster and will loose big in the House and Senate, McCain will basically be a lame duck president. (His friendship with top democrats will not get him very far in the long run.) His constant attacks on Barack Obama for being associated with that Ayers guy looks like desperation. Yea he was a terrorist and a crazy radical hippie, but serving on a board with him and being a little friendly towards him doesn't mean you support what he did decades ago! (I'm part of clubs that have radical student activists on it, and I'm even friends with some of them, but that doesn't make me a radical student activist!).

McCain's constant attack on Obama's tax plan is also a problem. The USA is suffering from huge deficits, raising taxes on the top earners seems appropriate! McCain and Palin should understand that its not socialism! Compared to most other developed countries, Obama's tax plan is very un-socialist!

Now, enough with domestic policy. I'm not particularly a fan of most of McCain's foreign policy. The United States has to do something about Iran. Yea their president is really crazy but the USA has a big opportunity here. Obama should not be attacked because he wants to talk to Iran! Look, China was communist, killed a lot of US soldiers in Korea, and aided North Vietnam. That did not stop Nixon from going to China. Maybe if the state department entered talks with Iran, Russia, and China could step in and be a mediator between the two countries. When Iran no longer feels threatened by the USA, they will probably back down on wanting to destroy Israel. The rest of the Middle Eastern countries would no longer feel threatened by the USA, and would begin to slowly force Iran to cut of funding for Iraqi terrorists and back down on supporting Hezbollah. Mr. McCain, isn't this a reasonable idea? If diplomacy fails, then the USA will say that they tried everything, and the world would recognize that Iran is a problem.

Also, I have issue with McCain's assertion that Eastern Europe and Georgia should be allowed into NATO, that is really irresponsible! All this would do is further alienate Russia! Hello, Russia for centuries had influence over eastern Europe! Bringing Russia's neighbours into NATO is irresponsible.

There are many more points, but I will present them over the next few days. Basically, the Republicans do not deserve office and McCain, even though he has been tested, is not the right man for the job. America does need change, generational change! McCain is stuck in the 80s, and Barack Obama would have a better standing on the world stage-why? Because 80% of the world like him. You want UN reform? Obama's the one. You want the Europeans to finally work with the USA, then I think Obama should be president. You want to fix the Afghanistan mess? He's the only one talking about Afghanistan. All McCain says is that he's gonna capture Bin Laden. Well, how about rebuilding Afghanistan and destroying the Taliban too?

The End of Capitalism?

After reading this week's edition of The Economist I couldn't help wondering if this is the end of capitalism. It seems like capitalism was abused so extensively that the only solution is to abolish it. Governments nationalizing banks?! Isn't that socialism? What's next, nationalizing oil companies and home builders? I'm not saying that governments should not try to prevent an economic collapse, I just can't believe that we have to go that far!

The Economist says it perfectly, "Now economic liberty is under attack and capitalism, the system which embodies it is at bay. This week Britain, the birth place of modern privatisation, nationalized much of its banking industry; amid talk of the end of the Thatcher-Reagan era, the American government has promised to put $250 billion into its banks..."

It seems like all that Reagan and Thacher has accomplished has been thrown out the window. The only question is who to blame. Current governments, the governments of Clinton and Blair (and others in the 90s for mishandling the Reagan-Thatcher policies), or should the blame be put on Reagan and Thatcher themselves.

One thing is becoming increasingly clear, if this trend continues, you can kiss goodbye to neoliberalism and say hello to socialism.

God help us.

The Election's Over, Now What?

Now that the election's over, its time to speculate on the future of the parties and the leaders.

I think we'll see Stephen Harper move swiftly to implement an economic plan to stop Canada from going in recession. When this happens, all the post-election polls will probably show a commanding lead for the Conservatives. If Harper plays his cards right, he could govern like he had a majority. (I don't think there's any risk of the government falling for at least 2 years.)

Other than sweeping northern Ontario and electing a MP in Quebec, Newfoundland, and Alberta, there is nothing to cheer about if you are a NDP supporter. They lost a seat in Toronto and made virtually no gains outside Ontario. Despite this Jack Layton should be safe.

The Liberals have problems. The received their lowest share of the popular vote since Confederation. Also, not including the 1984 debacle, the Liberals have their lowest seat count in over one hundred years. The party is bankrupt and is now basically leaderless. If they force Dion out at the March convention, they would have to have a second leadership convention in November/December 2009 (they'll probably only be able to afford to have it at some 2 star hotel in Toronto). So, for the Liberals, if Dion doesn't resign, they'll face bankruptcy, division, and be leaderless for at least a year.

Finally, the Bloc and the Greens.

The Bloc Quebecois only held on to their seats because Ducceppe was able to blow conservative missteps out of proportion. Once he retires they'll probably loose some support.

The Greens have big problems. Elizabeth May should have run somewhere in BC, or in the Ontario ridings of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, or Guelph. Running in Nova Scotia, against Peter Mackay was, to be blunt, really stupid. All of the party's resources and her time was spent trying to knock off a Conservative giant. If she ran in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound for example (assuming that the Liberals did not run a candidate) she would have won, and she could have focused more on a national campaign. It will be interesting to see what happens to her and her party.

Check out my election prediction, it was surprisingly close to the real thing!

How Will History Judge Stephen Harper?

In 25 to 50 years how will will history judge Stephen Harper? Well, it depends on the outcome.

A Conservative majority government would mark a significant shift in the political allegiances of Canadians. When Stephen Harper became Canadian Alliance leader that party was in decline. Similar to the PCs, the Alliance was polling at around 15 %. Paul Martin was supposed to lead the Liberals to the largest majority government in history, destroying the NDP and PC party and reducing the Bloc and the Alliance to a small group in the corner. Now here we are 5 years later, the Conservatives are heading to their second mandate and the Liberal are on the verge of bankruptcy.

I'm not going to discus the factors that led to this (if I did that post would be way too long). The point that I am trying to make that a Conservative majority government would probably mark the death of the Liberal Party and finally complete the "unite the right" process. Stephen Harper will be regarded in political science textbooks as Canada's greatest political leader who lead the Canadian centre-right out of the abyss and destroyed the Liberal Party. Looking back on the Canadian political events of the early 21st century, historians and political scientists will remark in amazement at the greatest reversal of political forces. There will probably be a book called the Decline and Fall of the Liberal Party (the decline I believe began in 1984.)

Now, enough speculation. It is more likely that Canadians will elect a Conservative minority government. If this happens, Harper will go down in history, not as the greatest political leader in Canadian history, just as the guy who led the centre-right out of the abyss (which is a good consolation prize I guess). The title of 'Liberal Party killer' would be handed to both Jack Layton and Elizabeth May.

Many in the future would speculate that if the Conservative Party had a leader other than Stephen Harper, they would have been handed a majority government in 2006. It is easy to say that, but we have to look at the facts. If Harper never ran for Canadian Alliance leader, that party would have disintegrated and would have probably re-emerged as a small Alberta protest party. Peter MacKay's PCs would be the only mainstream party that has some centre-right credentials. I think its safe to say that Peter MacKay as Progressive Conservative leader could have never formed a majority government, let alone a minority (its not his fault, it was the PC Party).

No matter what tonight's outcome is, one thing has to be remembered, only Harper could unite the right. History will judge him accordingly.

Election Prediction

Here's my election prediction:

The conservatives will not form a majority government, Tuesday's big questions will be if the Liberals can stay above 80 seats, if the NDP make big gains, and if the Conservatives can hold on to all of their seats in Quebec.

B.C: Conservative 21, Liberal 5, NDP 10

Alberta: Conservative 28

Saskatchewan: Conservative 13, Liberal 1

Manitoba: Conservative 9, Liberal 2, NDP 3

Ontario: Conservative 50, Liberal 39, NDP 17

Quebec: Conservative 10, Liberal 12, NDP 1, Bloc 51, IND 1

New Brunswick: Conservative 5, Liberal 4, NDP 1

PE1: Liberal 4

Nova Scotia: Conservative 3, Liberal 4, NDP 3, IND 1

Newfoundland and Labrador: Conservative 1, Liberal 5, NDP 1

Territories: Liberal 2, NDP 1

Total: Conservative 140, Liberal 78, Bloc 51, NDP 37, IND 2

According to my Textbook Canadian History Does Not Exist!

A course that I am taking called "The Making of Canada" increasingly seems to be a misnomer. At the halfway point of the semester, the course is now at the turn of the twentieth century. I'm not going to criticize the professor's lectures because they are fairly balanced in content. It is the textbook that I HAVE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH! The textbook for this course, A History of the Canadian Peoples does not fit the course description. This text is nothing but a survey of social history and a criticism of confederation! For example, in Chapter 5 entitled Becoming a Nation, the author spends 2 pages on responsible government, and 8 pages on life on the family farm!
I'm not disputing that pioneers were not crucial to the development of the nation, but can you give political history a chance!

Now on to Confederation. The author goes on and on about industrial working conditions and how women suffered under a male dominated society. Finally, he mentions confederation. It is rushed through in several pages towards the end of the chapter. The author spends more time highlighting a letter written by some obscure farmer than he does on John A. Macdonald and the other 'fathers of confederation'. (He only mentions Tupper, Cartier, Brown and Macdonald, and I'm sure that there were more 'fathers of confederation than that!) To make matters worse, the author goes out of his way to highlight how the Maritimes were super pissed off when they were forced to join confederation. In fact that is the only aspect of confederation that the author describes in detail!

So what did I learn about Canada becoming a nation? Way to much about industrial working conditions and way to little of the leaders who were largely responsible for the formation of Canada!

I don't know about you, but it seems like this textbook is nothing more than a politically correct social history textbook. Do I have to mention that the section on the First World War barley mentions Vimy Ridge! In the chapter on the Second World War only two pages are given to the battles that the Canadians took part in. Instead it is a description of women working in the factories.

Come on! Teach me some political and military history too! Thats why I took the class!!!!

A Grand Coalition

If the conservatives, or the liberals get a minority government, there should be serious talk of forming a grand coalition. No, I don't mean between the Liberals and the NDP. What I'm talking about will shake Canadian politics to its core. If the Conservatives get a minority government (which they likely will), Stephen Harper should ask Stephane Dion to form a coalition government. Liberals and Conservatives together in government! Am I crazy? Well, we had one during the second world war! Also, there was a grand coalition in Britain during the depression. There are also countless ones today, with the German CDU-SPD Grand Coalition.

The world is heading towards a deep recession (even though Canada has weather it so far, our time will come, soon). Harper can say that for the sake of the economy the Liberals and Conservatives should join forces, throwing aside the crazy NDP and the increasingly annoying Bloc Quebecois.

The House of Commons will look like this:
Conservatives 120
Liberals 90
Bloc 48
NDP 45

A Conservative-Liberal Government would look like this:

Speaker - Peter Milikin
PM - Stephen Harper
Finance - Jim Flaherty
Foreign Affairs - Michael Ignatieff (he has a similar foreign policy as the CPC and theire no credible one in the CPC Caucus)
Environment/Deputy PM - Stephane Dion
Defence - Peter Mackay
Justice - Rob Nicholson
Public Safety - Stockwell Day
Treasury Board - John Baird
Revenue - John McCullum
Public Works - Scott Brison
Health - Tony Clement
Indian Affairs - Chuck Strahl
Agriculture - Any conservative other than Gerry Ritz
Social Development - Give it to Ken Dryden to make him happy.
Immigration - Diane Finley
Industry - Marc Garneau (if he wins)
Transport - Lawrence Cannon
Fisheries - Some Liberal from Newfoundland
(Give most of the other, low profile portfolios to Liberals).

Now this would be a government that roughly 60% of Canadians voted for. Danny Williams will throw a fit. Jack Layton can realize his dream of being opposition leader, and economic policy will be streamlined through the committees and the Senate.

This would provide for a strong government in uncertain times. the Conservatives and the Liberals would work out a realistic economic plan, and would be in control of Foreign Affairs and the Environment (minus the Green Shift). This would be countered with the conservatives having full control over Justice, Defence and Senate Reform. I'm sure some would be shocked, but many conservatives would swallow it because it would prevent a possible Liberal-NDP coalition, and the Liberals would like it because they would be part of the government.

(Oh and notice that Bob Rae and Ralph Goodale do not have any big portfolios? They're be sent to junior minister jobs if Dion insists on having them in the cabinet.)

Brilliant, or Crazy, what do you think?

The Debate AKA The Kitchen Table Fight

After a few minutes, I realized that this debate is way to rushed and seems too crowded. I personally like the stand up podium style (which is how debates are supposed to be). This format resembles a bunch of people sitting at the kitchen table arguing.

Also, only 45 seconds to respond to a question is ridiculous, I'm in the debate club and we have 5 minutes to respond to a question! (They should at least have a minute and a half- but that's impossible with 5 leaders). I like the head-to-head format that the Americans get to enjoy, but its Canada, what can I say?

New Poll: Liberals and NDP Tied!

Link to follow. CTV Newsnet is reporting a new poll showing the Conservatives with a 19 point lead, with the Liberals and the NDP tied for second place. (Conservative 40%, Liberal 21%, NDP 21%, Bloc 10%). If Harper can regain his early election numbers in Quebec and hold on to his surging Ontario numbers, he will definitely form a majority government. Its all coming down to the debates.

I'm Dissapointed, Dion is BORING!

As someone who follows politics closely and regards elections as some of the most exciting things to watch, I can't help but notice how boring the Liberal campaign is! On the day that the election was called, I had encountered the Liberal campaign bus parked on Parliament Hill. I hung around near the bus for at least half an hour. I was expecting to see Dion (and I assume the 30 other people standing around were hoping to see him too). I soon grew tired of waiting, so I left the Hill and many others did too - not a good thing by the way Dion!).

After about an hour I returned to Parliament Hill and I was surprised to see Dion leaving the Parliament buildings! We all began to clap, but other than giving a little wave, all he did was stand in front of a TV camera, waiting to be interviewed. He just stood there, for 15 minutes, with all of us tourists looking at him. What I'm trying to get at here is that when you're a federal party leader and you have several dozen tourists starring at you, you should at least say a few words to the crowd. To me, this signalled that Dion was uncomfortable with crowds. What I also noticed was that he resembled my Canadian History professor! If this is the image that Canadians have of Dion - a shy, awkward professor, then he has some problems.

Now, I know many of you will be saying that he was probably nervous to be interviewed. I have to admit that after the interview was finished, he came and shook hands (I wished him good luck). However if he only said a few words to us, a few jokes about the media, or the weather, he would have energized the crowd a bit. I was disappointed. Dion did not give a first good impression, and he did nothing to woo my vote. As a result, I can't hid my disappointment in the state of the Liberal party, I like a fight, not a cakewalk! If Dion keeps this up, the election will be very boring, and no one will vote Liberal, or vote at all - remember Ontario 2007? If this is the state of Canada's so called natural governing party, then I think its time for a new one! I hope many others conclude that as well).

P.S. Dion: You don't win votes when all you do is give boring lectures on some complicated carbon tax, its just BORING!

The Conservative Party's State-of-the-Art War Room is Becoming One Big Gaff Machine

The great, disciplined war room that was supposed to be a model for campaign management and propel the conservatives to new heights is so far a dismal failure. Stephen harper has gone through a lot to improve his image and run an effective campaign, but for the second time in a week the war room has produced a gaff that diverted media attention away from the campaign. First it was the ridiculously stupid pooping puffin - what possessed that web designer to do that? (For the rest of Stephen Harper's political life he will likely be caricatured in cartoons with a puffin pooping on his shoulder!) That was not only stupid and juvenile, but it overshadowed the diesel tax announcement! Also, that Not a Leader website serves no purpose to improving Stephen Harper's image.

And then there's the major gaff a top conservative staffer (the same one who was behind that puffin poop) had suggested that the father of a solider killed in Afghanistan criticised the withdrawal plan because he is a liberal supporter (His criticism of the withdrawal policy is legitimate by the way!) Also, the RCMP being called in to stop reporters from asking Harper questions destroyed any respect he had earned them by breakfasting with them. This had all overshadowed a two-pronged attack delivered by Jack Layton and Stephen Harper on Stephane Dion's Carbon Tax.

Its not that these gaffs help Dion, his campaign is in disarray. These gaffs are threatening to derail the conservative campaign. That Conservative War Room better get its act together, the conservative campaign can't afford any more gaffs!

And They're Off..

The campaign is about to start and the only parties that are starting off on a strong footing are the NDP and the Conservatives. The NDP is seizing the high popularity of Jack Layton, portraying him as a potential Prime Minister! Also, the NDP is planing on a huge advertising blitz this campaign, and apparently they will skip over the Liberals and directly attack Stephen Harper.

I'm not underestimating Dion and the Liberals, but the start of their campaign is an embarrassment to their party. The Liberals do not have a campaign plane ready. The plane that they have rented is an Air Inuit Boeing 737 built in 1979! No offence to Air Inuit, but a plane from 1979 is not necessarily very fuel efficient - I can only see the political cartoons...Dion flying on a gas guzzler while proposing a carbon tax...that is embarrassing and stupid! Maybe they did not intend on renting that plane, but it was the only thing they can afford. Also, if the Green Shift was implemented, that plane would probably be too expensive to operate, and if Air Inuit only has planes like that, Dion's Green Shift, if implemented, would probably bankrupt them!

Now to the Conservatives. They are showcasing Stephen Harper, and their message of it being unwise to risk a change of government is an effective one when we're on the verge of a recession. Stephan Dion's plan of attack is a godsend for the Conservatives. So far, he has tried to compare Stephen Harper with George Bush, which is ludicrous, and when Dion says that voters have to stop Harper from forming a majority he basically admits defeat.

It is to early to call this race, but by the way its starting up, the Liberals look like they are not just going to have a bumpy ride on their campaign plane!

My Book Recommendations

Here are a few books that I would like to recommend.

1. The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, By William L. Shirer. This book is my all time favourite. Even though it is a whopping 1147 pages, not including the index and bibliography, and is full of lengthy footnotes, it was highly readable and a thoroughly enjoyable read. Shirer devotes over half of his book to chronicling the rise of Adolf Hitler,and he lays it out in superb detail. Although his deposition of the Second world War seems a little rushed, the German point of view it is written in makes it worthwhile (how many times do you read about WWII in the German point of view?). I highly recommend this book to anyone who is interested in history, or anyone who wants a clear description of the darkest period in modern history.

2. Gandhi & Churchill: The Epic Rivalry that Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age, by Arthur Herman. This is a dual biography of Gandhi and Winston Churchill, and also a brief history of the British Empire in India. Herman does an excellent job of chronicling the fife of Gandhi, but with Churchill he only highlights his views on the Empire. In this book Herman portrays Gandhi as the wrecker of the British Empire and Churchill. You might think that the comparison between the two is a little odd, because those two titans of history were always at odds with one another, but Herman does quite a good job. I recommend this book because it provides a brief overview of the lives of Gandhi and and Churchill, and also presents the British Empire in India as an epic struggle between old imperialists and Indian nationalists. This book is a must read for everyone wanting a brief overview of Gandhi, Churchill, and the British Empire.

3. The Rise and Fall of the British Empire, by Lawrence James. This is an older book, but it is probably the best volume on the British Empire to date. This book chronicles the entire history of the British Empire from the Renaissance to the handover of Hong Kong in 1997. James outlines the British Empire's legacy, global capitalism and trade, democracy, industrialization, slavery, then anti-slavery, colonization, prejudice, the maxim-gun, the steam- engine, and so on and so forth. James Cook, Nelson, Cecil Rhodes, Queen Victoria, King George III, and Winston Churchill are just some of the historical figures displayed in this book. Also, The Rise and Fall of the British Empire analyses imperialism, nationalism, and globalization. A recommended read for anyone who wants to solidify their knowledge of the British empire and its impact on world history. However, if you just want an introduction to the history of the British Empire, I recommend the book Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order, by Niall Ferguson.

Also, check out the book A History of the English Speaking Peoples Since 1900, by Andrew Roberts. A good history of Britain and America, but its neoconservative prospective might turn some people off.

Conservatives Release New TV Ads

The ad shown on CTV is really positive and features people saying why they support Stephen Harper. Let the campaign begin!

Three Likely Outcomes of a Fall Election

With a fall election all but certain, its been hard not to ponder the possible outcomes.
I believe there are 3 possible outcomes, they are:

1. The Conservatives win a minority government. It will probably be an increased minority with the Conservatives taking some seats from the Liberals in suburban Ontario and in the Maritimes. Also, the conservatives will take some seats from the Bloc in rural Quebec, and the NDP will knock out some Liberal seats in the urban centres. Stephane Dion will resign on election night and a leadership election will be called (or Dion will pull a John Tory, but be forced out at a leadership review). The Conservatives will be able to govern as if they had a majority.

2. Canada will become Harperland. If the Conservatives run another excellent campaign like in 2006, Dion fumbles everything and the Lib attack ads backfire, Harper will be able to appeal to the solid majority, which will allow the Conservatives to hold on to their western seats ( and probably get more in BC) and get a total of 60 seats in Ontario, 30 in Quebec, and 20 in the Maritimes. this will result in a solid majority government. The Bloc and the Liberals will be decimated. If Layton plays it right, the NDP might be within striking distance of the Liberals in the seat count (the NDP can only do this if they become a populist working class protest movement like they were in the 1980s). As a result, the Conservatives might become the natural governing party, and Layton will realize his dream of almost replacing the Liberals. Oh, and the Bloc will be sliced in half.

3. Now the more unlikely, but still possible if Harper pulls a Paul Martin. The Liberals squeak out a small minority, something like 120 seats to the Conservatives 110, and the government doesn't last long, something like Joe Clark's. Harper does a massive reorganization and is able to pull off being reelected. Or, if Dion allows it, Layton joins in a coalition with the Liberals, and Canada has its first NDP government!

Part 3: The Third Reich's Legacy

This is the final post in The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich Series.

The Third Reich had undoubtedly shattered Europe. Millions of people either died in the conflict or were brutally murdered by the Nazi regime. The French, Italian, and Japanese Empires had crumbled, and the once mighty British Empire was bankrupted. An ancient race was nearly wiped out, and then saw its return to the promised land. Communism had advanced to near supremacy, and an isolated republic was transformed into a superpower. This is the legacy of the Third Reich.

The Rebirth of Empires

After the First World War many proclaimed that the Age of Imperialism was over. However, in a few short years, one Empire was reborn but quickly fell, and another had risen out of the ashes. As Imperialism nearly crumbled into ruin in the 1920s, the once mighty German Empire, or "Second Reich" passed into history. In a few short years, that Empire was reborn into the Third Reich. Under the ruthless leadership of Adolf Hitler, that new Empire spread from North Africa to the outskirts of Moscow. But it collapsed as fast as it was born, nearly pulling Europe down with it.

Just as the Third Reich had quickly risen and fallen, another old Empire was reborn. The Russian Empire was just a shell of its former self at the outbreak of the Second World War. Its near destruction by the Third Reich had directly engineered its rebirth, consuming all of Eastern Europe, and casting a dark shadow over the shattered western Europe. Out of the ashes of a briefly mighty Third Reich, the Mighty Soviet Union had emerged, and an Iron Curtain descended onto Europe.

Israel

The Holocaust is probably the darkest moment in human history, millions of people, mostly Jews, were led to their death in nightmarish Nazi death camps. Hitler and his thugs' perverted dream of eliminating the Jewish race was one of history's most evil acts. When you look closer, it is hard not to notice the irony in Hitler's evil plan. The Nazis' attempt to wipe out the Jewish peoples, in the end, had led directly to the reestablishment of a Jewish state. Israel is probably the greatest product of the Third Reich. After the horrors of the Holocaust, the world could no longer morally deny the Jewish people a homeland, and in 1948, Israel was born.

The Passing of the Baton

The rise and fall of the Third Reich also led to the collapse of a great empire. Within a few years after the Second World War, the British Empire had faded into history. In its place another great English-speaking democracy rose to dominance, the American Republic. The world quickly shed its web of great powers and became a world dominated by the Soviet Union in the East, and the United States of America in the West. The Third Reich had caused the old order of European imperialism to collapse, and a new age of superpower politics to emerge. The Cold War had begun...

...Now as Russia reasserts herself on the world stage, China and India rise to new heights, and Europe becomes more united, it is hard not to wonder if the world if returning to the pre-Second World War order with Russia, the United States, China, India, and the European Union as the world's great powers.

The Canadian Cynic Really Hates Me!

It seems like The Canadian Cynic really hates me! First, a Canadian Cynic blogger incorrectly wrote that I have compared Stephen Harper's Prime Ministerial career with that of Richard Nixon. What I was trying to get at was that Nixon (and the Republicans) where able to appeal to the silent majority (something Harper's trying to do). I was not saying that Harper is corrupt like Nixon. Then when I tried to defend myself on that blog, I was continuously mocked by all of Canadian Cynic's cronies (something that did not surpries me).

Recently, Canadian Cynic had attacked Fox News and Bill O' Reilly's 'bias'. Just like The Canadian Cynic blog had torn up one of my posts, I had attempted to do do the same by saying that Fox News is not nearly as biased as MSNBC or CBC, and I pointed out that O' Reilly always says that he's an Independent. So, maybe I was asking for it, but Canadian Cynic wrote a new post entitled When Blogging Tories Comment Badly, and he points to an article from 2005 saying that O' Reilly is a registered Republican, he doesn't mention that O' Reilly said it was a mistake, and IS now a registered 'Independent'!

What I'm trying to get at is should I be concerned about Candian Cynic contributers continuously trying to rip me apart, or should I just regard them as a cynical lefties who are super pissed off that what they call 'NeoCons' are running their beloved country?

An Election Won't Be Stopped Now...

...unless the Governor General refuses to dissolve parliament - which will (almost certainly) never happen.

Dion has refused to return PM Harper's calls, apparently that means that since you don't want to talk to the Prime Minister on the phone, then don't bother planning for a new legislative session. It is increasingly evident that Harper wants an election -and he's gonna get it. At first the Liberals did not believe him, but now they know that he's serious. Unlike Dion, when Harper wants an election -he wants an election (remember the spring of 2005?).

There are two possible outcomes to all this election talk. Either Dion will meet with PM Harper - and Harper says he's unreasonable and calls an election -or- PM Stephen Harper will tell the GG that because the Leader of the Opposition doesn't want to discuss with him about how to bring the minority parliament forward, parliament has become dysfunctional and an election must be called.

So there we have it, we finally have an election that was technically supposed to happen last fall - if you play the minority government odds. Now its time to ponder what the outcome of the election will be...

The Republicans are More Divided than the Democrats

As the Democratic Party Convention begins, there has been a lot of talk of the great division between Obama and Clinton supporters. Republicans are obviously exploiting this as much as they can. However, the Democrats aren't the only party that is divided this convention season. It is common knowledge that John McCain never enjoyed considerable support from Evangelicals and staunch conservatives - the base of the Republican Party. Even though there is plenty of evidence that they have begun to warm to McCain, the base is still not energized by his candidacy. With the Democrats, the base is behind Barack Obama, its just some of the staunch Hilary Clinton supporters who are not warming to him.

My advice to McCain - put Mitt Romney on the ticket, the Conservatives love him and he has an impressive political record. Do not pick Joe Liberman - he's not a Republican, and he was Gore's running mate. The images of Liberman hugging Al Gore at the 2000 convention will make many Republicans shriek in horror at the thought of him being McCain's VP pick. Choosing Liberman will be political suicide, choosing Mitt Romney will help energize the Republican base.

Obama Biden 2008

Mr Change has picked Mr. 30 year Senator, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. However Biden does bring a lot of foreign policy experience which I guess is a good thing. Also Biden's son is preparing for a tour of duty in Iraq, so maybe we'll see more flip-flops from Obama. Will Joe Biden make Obama President? Its still too hard to tell, but many news agencies are reporting that choosing Biden will give Obama a bounce in the polls, but we'll see.

An Election! An Election!

According to CTV, senior Tories say an election might be called after Labour Day! I hope Dion is ready! Link: Election call possible after Labour Day.

Part 2: The Nazi-Soviet Pact

This is the second in a series of posts on William Shirer's book, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich.

By the early summer of 1939, it had became apparent that Hitler was planning the destruction of Poland. The only thing that was stopping hm was the nightmare of a two-front war. If Poland was invaded, the Polish Army would have been easily defeated, but it was obvious to Hitler that the Soviet Union would not stand by and let Germany take Poland. With the Germans tied up battling the Soviet Union, the Western Front would have been left defenceless. It was apparent to everyone that a two front war would have meant disaster for Nazi Germany.

The Basis for The Nazi-Soviet Pact

Hitler repeatedly told the French and British that he did not want to go to war with them. But the the British no longer had the desire to appease Hitler like at Munich. According to Shirer, Hitler and his Generals believed that if it was guaranteed that The Soviet Union would not go to war against Germany, it would discourage the French and British to go to war over Poland. The Germans, French, and British had all realized that with a neutral Soviet Union, Poland was doomed.

The Nazis and the British immediately opened up communications with the Soviets. The Nazi goal was to have the Soviets agree to a non-aggression pact, and the British were hoping for a French-British-Soviet military alliance - similar to the one that proved so destructive to the German war effort in the First World War. However, the British did not know (but the Nazis did) that The Soviet Union desired a chunk of Poland, and wanted greater influence in the Balkans, and the Baltic Sea. The Nazis were prepared to give them what they wanted in order to secure a non-aggression pact, but the British were not prepared to go that far. Shirer writes that the British feared a more powerful Soviet Union, and that the Nazis were also fearful of giving them more power, but Hitler said he would remedy that problem by destroying The Soviet Union in a future war!

A Last Minute Hope for Peace

On August 28, 1939 it was announced that Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union had signed a non-aggression pact, the nightmare of a possible two-front war was over. Many people, including Shirer himself, thought that a world war would be avoided. According to Shirer, many, including Roosevelt, Mussolini, Stalin, and Hitler himself, had assumed that the French and British would not bother to fight for Poland now that the Soviet Union was out of the picture. It turned out that they were proven wrong.

The Italians, after signing the Rome-Berlin Axis, were terrified of the prospect of a war with France and Britain. The Italian Army would have likley met disater agaunst the French in the Alps, and Shirer wrote that the Italian Navy would be destroyed in a fortnight. When it became apparent that The British and French will go to war with Germany if Poland was attacked, The Duce (Mussolini) was able to wiggle out of his country's military alliance with Germany (according to Shirer, he did this by demanding from the Germans an impossible amount of rubber, coal, oil and gas). After a last ditch attempt by Hitler to prevent France and Britain from going to war (he offered to guarantee the French frontier and the British Empire), the orders were given for the German Army to attack Poland.

Why The Soviet Union Signed a Non-Aggression Pact With Germany

When reading Shirer's depiction of the prelude to The Second World War, it is easy to realize why the Soviet Union -no big fan of Nazi Germany, had agreed to sign the Non-Aggression Pact. Shirer makes it clear in his depiction of the events, that the British were not determined enough in their negotiations to get the Soviet Union to sign an alliance with them. Shirer writes that the British did nothing to address Stalin's fear of having to bear the full brunt of a German attack.

According to Shirer, the Soviets pointed out that France's 100 divisions would only take up defensive positions behind the Maginot Line and not attack Germany, and that the British Expeditionary Force would only be 4-5 divisions strong. Whereas the Soviets would have to mobilize almost 200 divisions to defend Poland - a territory with no natural defences. It was also pointed out that Hitler would direct most of his forces in the direction of Poland, and likely wouldn't stop until he got to Moscow.

It is hard not to blame the Soviets for not wanting to go to war against Germany. Shirer makes it obvious that they would have had to do most of the fighting, and besides, Poland did not like The Soviet Union that much. Unlike with the Munich Agreement, there was no real alternative to preventing the outbreak of war.

However, the Franco-British military strategy is another matter.

The Second Cold War?

Russian agression, and tensions with the West, are beginning to reach a level similar to that of the Cold War. With the invasion of South Ossetia, the Russians seemed to have thrown away Post-Cold War Diplomacy and decided to show off their military might. The United States, for obvious reasons is not too pleased with this, but there is little they can do.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Medvedev-Putin Administration is focused on gaining power in the former Soviet Republics. Are the Russians orchestrating a merger of the former Soviet Republics into a new union? It is still too early to tell, but with Russia's anger at Poland's missile defence deal with the USA, and Russia's new aggressive attitude towards its neighbours, we could be headed into the 'Second Cold War'!

I think its time for a new Arctic Defence strategy to protect Canada against any Russian threat. Also, the West has to do more to accommodate China, because if a new Cold War breaks out, we will have to ensure that China is the West's friend, and Russia's enemy.

Colin Powell's Endorsement Will Make Obama President

Barack Obama's campaign has met a major obstacle this week: Jerome Corsi's book, Obama Nation is now at the top of the New York Times Bestseller's List (imagine the NYTimes' horror!). Even though Corsi is a radical right-wing fringe guy, many people are reading Obama Nation. This is mostly because they either feel uneasy about Obama being President, or that they just want to learn more about him because he is relatively new on the political scene - a point that the Mccain campaign has stressed countless times.

Now we hear news that Colin Powell will endorse Barack Obama! Powell is well liked and respected by both Republicans and Democrats, which will provide a significant boost in Obama's support, and will be a significant setback for the McCain campaign. As a result of this, Obama Nation will be regarded as yesterday's news - all the buzz will be about Colin Powell and Obama.

It is also likely that Obama will make Colin Powell Defence Secretary (if he becomes President). This will put to rest any fears of an Obama administration not being strong on defence and foreign affairs. This development has the potential of not only burying Jerome Corsi's book Obama Nation, it also has a STRONG potential of making Obama President of the United States!

Just Force an Election!

According to The Globe and Mail, PM Harper is thinking about forcing an election this fall. Bring it on! This parliament has become dysfunctional, nothing was getting passed this spring, and all the Liberals did was blab about some fake government scandal. With Dion and the Liberals digging themselves into a big hole over the Green 'Shaft' tax grab, with candidates bailing on them, and with virtually no money coming in from individual contributors, it looks like they will face a "bloodbath" similar to the one New Labour experienced last spring.

With a conservative majority (let's hope), the Liberals will be thrown into a leadership crisis. Also, with the Conservative Convention in November, some true conservative principles can be adopted by the party - ahhh the hidden agenda! With a strong mandate and a leaderless and bankrupt Liberal Party, the Conservatives will not face any serious opposition if any true right wing policies are adopted. I can't wait! You better be ready Dion cause the election you've been wanting since you became leader is right around the corner!

Canada's Depressing Olympic Performance

Its now day 6 of the Olympics and Canada hasn't won any medals. I know that Canada performs well at the Winter Olympics, and that most of the events that Team Canada is expected to do well in have not started yet, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't have at least a few bronze medals by now - come on, countries like Kyrgyzstan have won medals (no offence to any Kyrgyzstanis).

Calling Canada a "winter nation" is not a legitimate excuse; there are many people, including myself, in this country who take part in summer sports (and by the way, "winter nations" like Sweden and Switzerland have won medals!). I think its safe to say that Canada's performance so far is not something to celebrate, and because of this, I believe that its time for a major overhaul of Team Canada's funding and coaching strategy, something clearly has to be done about our dismal performance at the Summer Olympics.

The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: The Road to War

This is the first of a series of posts regarding the subject of William Shirer's book, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. After reading the book, it is hard for me not to wonder what would have happened if France and Britain were governed by 'warmongers' instead of 'peace lovers' in the pre-war years. Throughout the 1930s, the French and British missed many opportunities to stop Hitler, resulting in near fatal consequences for them.

When the Rhineland was reoccupied by German troops, the German generals were terrified of the possibility of French hostilities. In the book, Shirer reveals that the Germans were fatally outnumbered, and if the French opened fire on them, they would have been forced to retreat. According to documents cited in the book, if the Germans were forced to retreat, there would have been a serious possibility that the Nazi regime would have collapsed. Instead the French allowed the Germans to re-militarize the Rhineland, handing Hitler a huge victory and effectively destroying the Treaty of Versailles.

Another blunder which led to the outbreak of The Second World War was the Munich Pact. Czechoslovakia had a large, modern army with formidable mountain defences, equal to the French Maginot Line. Most German Generals believed that it would be almost impossible to break through them and invade Czechoslovakia. In addition to this, the people of Germany were dead set against war. Most of the Generals and Officers believed that the German Army would be slaughtered by the Czechoslovaks, and that the lightly defended frontier with France would collapse if the French went to war (it was assumed they would because France had a military alliance with Czechoslovakia). The Generals believed that if the German army was bogged down in the mountainous terrain on the Czechoslovak border, France's 100 divisions would overrun Germany's 20 divisions on the western front, leading to military disaster.

In order to prevent the ruin of Germany, the Generals came up with a plan for a military coup. According to Shirer, when Hitler would give the order to attack, the army would carry out a coup and arrest Hitler and put in his place a provisional government that would be 'anti-Nazi'. All that the Generals needed was a firm declaration by Britain and France that they would go to war against Germany if Czechoslovakia was invaded. As we all know, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain formulated the Munich agreement, forcing the fully mobilized Czech army to back down, and preserving peace for 11 months.

The sacrifice of Czechoslovakia ironically led to the outbreak of the war that Chamberlain so desperately wanted to avoid. It could be argued that if the coup failed, or did not occur, the German army would have met disaster against the Czechoslovaks and the French and British could have dealt a death blow to Nazi Germany. It is easy to argue that if the war had begun by the invasion of Czechoslovakia instead of by the invasion of Poland a year later, the British and the French would have had the upper hand against Germany, instead of the other way around. Chamberlain should have advocated war when the conditions were favorable instead of formulating a short period of peace.

Readers of The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich do not have long to ponder these 'what ifs' because they are quickly led into the secret negotiations between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in the summer of 1939 (the topic of the next post in this series).

'The Conservative Manifesto'

Here are some ideas that should be implemented by the Conservatives:

1. Reform the Canada Health Act to allow elements of private health care/public-private partnerships.

2. Income tax reform - flat tax, income splitting, baby bonus, etc.

3. Abolishing or overhauling "Human Rights" Commissions, so they're true to their word, not free speech attackers!

4. Placing some sort of limit on abortions, NOT outlawing them, just putting a time limit on when one could be performed, like most other countries.

5. Ditching the middle power thing and emphasize Canada as a major energy power.

6. Reform the CRTC

7. More military spending, especially on the airforce, so Canada can be committed to major peacekeeping operations and NATO operations.

8. Continue to emphasize the need for Senate reform.

9. Establish a national infrastructure program (would be popular in urban and rural areas).

10. Call a First Minister's meeting to address the problem of inter-provincial trade restrictions, especially between Ontario and Quebec.

11. Formulate a new energy plan to make Canada energy independent, Alberta oil should be supplied to all of Canada AND be traded elsewhere (we should not import oil) - Emphasize nuclear and hydro power!

12. Abolish or reform the Canadian Wheat Board.

13. Serious action is needed to address the state of aboriginal reserves in Canada.

14. Immigration Reform! Canada need a new immigration plan, fast track skilled immigrants! I know this has been proposed, but it must go further.

15. And the shocker! Repeal official multiculturalism! Why can't Canada be a melting-pot nation? It has been proven many times that multiculturalism actually makes it more difficult for immigrant communities.

The Depressing State of Ontario Politics

Since I live in Ontario its hard for me not to be depressed over the sorry state of provincial politics. With the economy sinking fast, McGuinty's government has done nothing but criticize Ottawa. No tax reform, no major economic stimulus packages (something Liberals love), no spending cuts, only complaining about how Ottawa takes our money away. As a result, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Ontario is on the highway to 'have not status'.

In the last election, as we all know, barely 50 percent of Ontarians bothered to vote, confirming that politics here is in very bad shape. The governing Liberals literally have a free hand to do nothing. The opposition parties are no better. After the disastrous election campaign the PCs are in worse shape than before the election, and the NDP is being reduced to a tiny fringe group in the corner.
This brings me to last year's election campaign. John Tory could have easily increased the PCs seat count from 24 to 40 (not 24 to 25), and if they ran an effective campaign similar to Harper's, and Dumont's in Quebec, they could have won the election. Instead, the campaign was hijacked by the religious schools fiasco. We all know that this threw a life jacket to McGuinty and destroyed not only the PCs campaign, but the NDP's as well. It would have been better for Tory to promise to allow private health care instead (the Liberals would have attacked it in a similar fashion to what Chretien did to the Canadian Alliance), but at least it would have energized the base (or most of it), and is more popular than religious schools! So now Ontario is left with two ineffective opposition parties (the down and out PCs, and the tiny NDP) and an ineffective government.
My advice to the PCs: adopt new, more 'Harris' style policies, and change the party's name from the oxymoron 'Progressive Conservatives', to something like the 'Ontario Conservatives'. That will surly get the media's attention (and the voter's attention), oh, and pay more attention to the grass roots next time!

Dion's "Green Shift" will shift votes...

...To the conservatives! This is becoming increasingly evident in the Maritimes, with a fossil fuel-based energy system and Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald against it, Dion could experience hosility towards his plan in the Maritimes, similar to what he experienced in the west. It is entirely possible that the Liberals could see a significant drop in their once strong support in the Maritimes. I wonder if Elizabeth May considered this when she decided to run against Peter Mackay in rural Nova Scotia?

Obama the Underperformer?

Politico.com has an interesting article on the "surprising" underperformance of Barack Obama. With a historically unpopular president about to leave office, and all the polls indicating that the Democrats will win a huge majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, Barack Obama at best is only poling 3-4% above John McCain. You would think that with the Democratic Party apparently enjoying a level of popularity not seen since the 1970s, Barack Obama should have a commanding or at least a comfortable lead over McCain. It is still early, but it is obvious to everyone that McCain is doing better than expected, and Obama is underperforming. Maybe the Conventions will shake things up a bit.

McCain: "Washington is Broken"

A new McCain TV ad seems to be taking a page out of Mitt Romney's playbook. (Mitt Romney used the term "Washington is broken" during his primary campaigns). Could this be a sign that McCain will choose Romney as his VP running mate?
View the ad:


Mitt Romney during the New Hampshire primary:

Next on the Reading List...

Now that I'm finished with William Shrier's The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich (more on that later), I'll be shifting my attention from history to the US election by reading Barack Obama's The Audacity of Hope, I'm planning on finishing it just before the Democratic Party Convention begins, and besides, what else is there to do after work hours when the weather is nothing but endless rain.

Labour in "Full Scale Leadership Crisis"

In Britain, it is becoming apparent that Gordon Brown's government is going to collapse. After several disastrous by-election defeats, suffering a 'bloodbath' in local elections, and loosing the London mayoralty to Conservative Boris Johnson, and a 20 point deficit in the polls, many labour MPs are calling for a leadership review. today comes news of Foreign Minister David Miliband refusing to rule out challenging Gordon Brown in a leadership election - this comes after Jack Straw ruled out his name in a leadership bid. Whether or not Gordon Brown will be kicked out as PM is besides the point, it is almost certain that a 'Tory Tide' is about to swamp Britain. Read about it in the Telegraph.

John McCain - Mitt Romney

It is becoming apparent that Mitt Romney will be John McCain's running mate. This, in my opinion will be a wise choice for McCain. Romney is popular amongst conservatives, a group that hasn't exactly warmed up to McCain, and he polled well in many pre-super Tuesday primaries that John McCain did not do well in.
However, the biggest advantage Mitt Romney will give the McCain campaign is his impressive fundraising capabilities, which will allow the McCain campaign to close the fundrasing gap with Barack Obama. John McCain will make a big mistake if he does not choose Romney as his running mate. Choosing Romney will show unity in the Republican Party, since they both engaged in negative campaigning against eachother. Also picking Romney as his runing mate will give McCain's campaign some much needed news coverage prior to the Democratic Party Convention.

A Whirlwind of Summer Reading

I have set out on an ambitious reading program this summer. So far i have read America Alone by Mark Stein, which presents the startling argument that decreased birthrates and increased immigration will bring the end of Europe. I have also read Empire by Niall Ferguson as a refresher of my knowledge of the British Empire's rise and fall.
Currently I am ploughing through William Shrier's classic The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich which I plan on finishing soon. Once I am through with that monster I will have a definite foundation stone for further studies in 20th century history, Hurray! But it doesn't stop there. I plan on reading Barack Obama's The Audacity of Hope, and Bill O'Reilley's Culture Warrior, which I'm sure will seem like easy reading compared to The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich! Once I'm through with this ambitious reading program I will set my sights on learning French and establishing an effective workout routine to counter all the cafeteria food I will be eating this fall!

Is the West Once Again Conservative?

As the United States appears to be drifting to the left, it is hard not to notice the political trend in other western countries. In France, voters elected a President who ran on one of the most conservative platforms in that country's history. In Germany, the Christian Democrats lead the government, and the Italians voted back Berluscioni and awarded him the largest majority of seats since the second world war. And finally in the UK, the Conservative party consistently has a 20 point lead over New Labour. It will be interesting to see if the US (and Canada) goes against this apparent trend.

The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich

I've started reading this monumental and gigantic book about 2 weeks ago. After about 463 pages, Hitler is planning his takeover of Poland. There is no doubt that this book is essential reading for anyone interested in history. I'm also quite sure that once I'm finished with this sucker I'll be well prepared for my first year 20Th century history class.

The British Empire's Legacy

I thought my first blog post should showcase my views on the deceased British Empire.

At its height in the early 20th century, the British Empire accounted for over 25 percent of the worlds surface area, and roughly the same amount of the world’s population. Even though that empire is reduced to nothing more than a handful of scattered islands, and ceremonial monarchies in its former Dominions, it has left a legacy far greater than that of Rome’s. Almost a billion people have a working knowledge of english, capitalism, the most sucessfull and dominant economic system owes its sucess not necessarily to the Americans, but to the British. It was the dutch who first embraced it, but the Britsh were responsible for its rise to dominance in the 19th century.

Democracy even though ‘invented’ by the Athenians, is one of the most enduring legacies of the British Empire. Even when revolutionaries in Paris were sending Louis XVI to the guillotine, across the channel Britian had a constitution guaranteeing individual freedoms and elected parliaments for centuries. some of the worlds most sucessfull and oldest democracies were fomerly part of the Britsh Empire, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India, and the United States all owe their democratic traditions in some form or another to the Britsh Empire.

I will not deny the fact that the empire was founded on slavery, economic explotation, and ethnic cleansing. However, it must also be noted that it was the British who first saw the error of their ways. Here in Canada, their is a lot of bad feelings over the conquest of Quebec and the expelling of the Acadians, but it must be noted that the British evetually allowed them to retain their language, religion, and even legal code (Quebec is one of the only jursidictions in the former empire whose legal system is not based on Common Law).

Many would counter this by saying that many of the ‘non white’ parts of ther former British Empire are not enjoying the benefits of personal and economic liberty. It must be noted that Zimbawe (formerly Rhodesia) was the breadbasket of Africa, exporting food. They had the highest literacy rates, one of the highest life expentancy rates and one of the higest income rates in all of africa, it is becasue of the tyrant Robert Mugabe, not the British Empire that that counrty is in disarray, but thats another story.

Just ask yourself this question, imagine a world if empires like the Third Reich (Nazi Germany) had reached the level of global dominance that the British once held?