Here's my election prediction:
The conservatives will not form a majority government, Tuesday's big questions will be if the Liberals can stay above 80 seats, if the NDP make big gains, and if the Conservatives can hold on to all of their seats in Quebec.
B.C: Conservative 21, Liberal 5, NDP 10
Alberta: Conservative 28
Saskatchewan: Conservative 13, Liberal 1
Manitoba: Conservative 9, Liberal 2, NDP 3
Ontario: Conservative 50, Liberal 39, NDP 17
Quebec: Conservative 10, Liberal 12, NDP 1, Bloc 51, IND 1
New Brunswick: Conservative 5, Liberal 4, NDP 1
PE1: Liberal 4
Nova Scotia: Conservative 3, Liberal 4, NDP 3, IND 1
Newfoundland and Labrador: Conservative 1, Liberal 5, NDP 1
Territories: Liberal 2, NDP 1
Total: Conservative 140, Liberal 78, Bloc 51, NDP 37, IND 2
Sunday, October 12, 2008
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9 comments:
I only the conservatives haven't screwed up the campiagn in Quebec, they could have picked up 15-20 seats which would have given them a majority government!!
I hope your prediction is true. I believe your Ontario and BC estimates to be optimistic.
I can only pray that people sitting at home thinking how they will vote come Tuesday will look at the notion of a pathetic individual such as Dion as their leader, and recoil back to rationality.
The BC results depend largely on a strong Green vote, and the Ontario results depend largely on a strong NDP vote in southern Ontario and a strong conservative vote in the Toronto suburbs. I'm optomistic about BC and Ontario, but in Quebec, the CPC will be lucky to hold on to all their seats. However, the Bloc vote has been overestimated in recent elections...
Hey.. It is gonna be a conservative minority unfortunately. NDP has been busy trashing Harper and I think their horrible attempts to deceive the Canadians have been successful. It's so terrible! Btw, Jack reminds me of the Messiah south of the border. They sound a lot like each other.
I'm a Conservative, and hope the above result happens, but I think it's a little optimistic unless we improve over the last 2 days.
The numbers above jive very closely with my current optimistic scenario. Currently, I'm projecting 130 total.
You missed 1 independent in the total. :)
And I thought you were dreaming at 140. Since the BC polls closed over an hour and a half ago, congratulations at being so close.
I'm shocked at how close my prediction was. (also in my hometown of Sudbury the NDP stole both ridings from the liberals, a historic night in sudbury and northern ontario)!
I'll post a summary tommorrow.
Yup. We are a union town here in Sudbury. I was surprised the Conservatives did so well here. I wonder if this is one of their best showings.
well this is really nice stuff
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