The Election's Over, Now What?

Now that the election's over, its time to speculate on the future of the parties and the leaders.

I think we'll see Stephen Harper move swiftly to implement an economic plan to stop Canada from going in recession. When this happens, all the post-election polls will probably show a commanding lead for the Conservatives. If Harper plays his cards right, he could govern like he had a majority. (I don't think there's any risk of the government falling for at least 2 years.)

Other than sweeping northern Ontario and electing a MP in Quebec, Newfoundland, and Alberta, there is nothing to cheer about if you are a NDP supporter. They lost a seat in Toronto and made virtually no gains outside Ontario. Despite this Jack Layton should be safe.

The Liberals have problems. The received their lowest share of the popular vote since Confederation. Also, not including the 1984 debacle, the Liberals have their lowest seat count in over one hundred years. The party is bankrupt and is now basically leaderless. If they force Dion out at the March convention, they would have to have a second leadership convention in November/December 2009 (they'll probably only be able to afford to have it at some 2 star hotel in Toronto). So, for the Liberals, if Dion doesn't resign, they'll face bankruptcy, division, and be leaderless for at least a year.

Finally, the Bloc and the Greens.

The Bloc Quebecois only held on to their seats because Ducceppe was able to blow conservative missteps out of proportion. Once he retires they'll probably loose some support.

The Greens have big problems. Elizabeth May should have run somewhere in BC, or in the Ontario ridings of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, or Guelph. Running in Nova Scotia, against Peter Mackay was, to be blunt, really stupid. All of the party's resources and her time was spent trying to knock off a Conservative giant. If she ran in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound for example (assuming that the Liberals did not run a candidate) she would have won, and she could have focused more on a national campaign. It will be interesting to see what happens to her and her party.

Check out my election prediction, it was surprisingly close to the real thing!