The Election's Over, Now What?

Now that the election's over, its time to speculate on the future of the parties and the leaders.

I think we'll see Stephen Harper move swiftly to implement an economic plan to stop Canada from going in recession. When this happens, all the post-election polls will probably show a commanding lead for the Conservatives. If Harper plays his cards right, he could govern like he had a majority. (I don't think there's any risk of the government falling for at least 2 years.)

Other than sweeping northern Ontario and electing a MP in Quebec, Newfoundland, and Alberta, there is nothing to cheer about if you are a NDP supporter. They lost a seat in Toronto and made virtually no gains outside Ontario. Despite this Jack Layton should be safe.

The Liberals have problems. The received their lowest share of the popular vote since Confederation. Also, not including the 1984 debacle, the Liberals have their lowest seat count in over one hundred years. The party is bankrupt and is now basically leaderless. If they force Dion out at the March convention, they would have to have a second leadership convention in November/December 2009 (they'll probably only be able to afford to have it at some 2 star hotel in Toronto). So, for the Liberals, if Dion doesn't resign, they'll face bankruptcy, division, and be leaderless for at least a year.

Finally, the Bloc and the Greens.

The Bloc Quebecois only held on to their seats because Ducceppe was able to blow conservative missteps out of proportion. Once he retires they'll probably loose some support.

The Greens have big problems. Elizabeth May should have run somewhere in BC, or in the Ontario ridings of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, or Guelph. Running in Nova Scotia, against Peter Mackay was, to be blunt, really stupid. All of the party's resources and her time was spent trying to knock off a Conservative giant. If she ran in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound for example (assuming that the Liberals did not run a candidate) she would have won, and she could have focused more on a national campaign. It will be interesting to see what happens to her and her party.

Check out my election prediction, it was surprisingly close to the real thing!

How Will History Judge Stephen Harper?

In 25 to 50 years how will will history judge Stephen Harper? Well, it depends on the outcome.

A Conservative majority government would mark a significant shift in the political allegiances of Canadians. When Stephen Harper became Canadian Alliance leader that party was in decline. Similar to the PCs, the Alliance was polling at around 15 %. Paul Martin was supposed to lead the Liberals to the largest majority government in history, destroying the NDP and PC party and reducing the Bloc and the Alliance to a small group in the corner. Now here we are 5 years later, the Conservatives are heading to their second mandate and the Liberal are on the verge of bankruptcy.

I'm not going to discus the factors that led to this (if I did that post would be way too long). The point that I am trying to make that a Conservative majority government would probably mark the death of the Liberal Party and finally complete the "unite the right" process. Stephen Harper will be regarded in political science textbooks as Canada's greatest political leader who lead the Canadian centre-right out of the abyss and destroyed the Liberal Party. Looking back on the Canadian political events of the early 21st century, historians and political scientists will remark in amazement at the greatest reversal of political forces. There will probably be a book called the Decline and Fall of the Liberal Party (the decline I believe began in 1984.)

Now, enough speculation. It is more likely that Canadians will elect a Conservative minority government. If this happens, Harper will go down in history, not as the greatest political leader in Canadian history, just as the guy who led the centre-right out of the abyss (which is a good consolation prize I guess). The title of 'Liberal Party killer' would be handed to both Jack Layton and Elizabeth May.

Many in the future would speculate that if the Conservative Party had a leader other than Stephen Harper, they would have been handed a majority government in 2006. It is easy to say that, but we have to look at the facts. If Harper never ran for Canadian Alliance leader, that party would have disintegrated and would have probably re-emerged as a small Alberta protest party. Peter MacKay's PCs would be the only mainstream party that has some centre-right credentials. I think its safe to say that Peter MacKay as Progressive Conservative leader could have never formed a majority government, let alone a minority (its not his fault, it was the PC Party).

No matter what tonight's outcome is, one thing has to be remembered, only Harper could unite the right. History will judge him accordingly.

Election Prediction

Here's my election prediction:

The conservatives will not form a majority government, Tuesday's big questions will be if the Liberals can stay above 80 seats, if the NDP make big gains, and if the Conservatives can hold on to all of their seats in Quebec.

B.C: Conservative 21, Liberal 5, NDP 10

Alberta: Conservative 28

Saskatchewan: Conservative 13, Liberal 1

Manitoba: Conservative 9, Liberal 2, NDP 3

Ontario: Conservative 50, Liberal 39, NDP 17

Quebec: Conservative 10, Liberal 12, NDP 1, Bloc 51, IND 1

New Brunswick: Conservative 5, Liberal 4, NDP 1

PE1: Liberal 4

Nova Scotia: Conservative 3, Liberal 4, NDP 3, IND 1

Newfoundland and Labrador: Conservative 1, Liberal 5, NDP 1

Territories: Liberal 2, NDP 1

Total: Conservative 140, Liberal 78, Bloc 51, NDP 37, IND 2

According to my Textbook Canadian History Does Not Exist!

A course that I am taking called "The Making of Canada" increasingly seems to be a misnomer. At the halfway point of the semester, the course is now at the turn of the twentieth century. I'm not going to criticize the professor's lectures because they are fairly balanced in content. It is the textbook that I HAVE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH! The textbook for this course, A History of the Canadian Peoples does not fit the course description. This text is nothing but a survey of social history and a criticism of confederation! For example, in Chapter 5 entitled Becoming a Nation, the author spends 2 pages on responsible government, and 8 pages on life on the family farm!
I'm not disputing that pioneers were not crucial to the development of the nation, but can you give political history a chance!

Now on to Confederation. The author goes on and on about industrial working conditions and how women suffered under a male dominated society. Finally, he mentions confederation. It is rushed through in several pages towards the end of the chapter. The author spends more time highlighting a letter written by some obscure farmer than he does on John A. Macdonald and the other 'fathers of confederation'. (He only mentions Tupper, Cartier, Brown and Macdonald, and I'm sure that there were more 'fathers of confederation than that!) To make matters worse, the author goes out of his way to highlight how the Maritimes were super pissed off when they were forced to join confederation. In fact that is the only aspect of confederation that the author describes in detail!

So what did I learn about Canada becoming a nation? Way to much about industrial working conditions and way to little of the leaders who were largely responsible for the formation of Canada!

I don't know about you, but it seems like this textbook is nothing more than a politically correct social history textbook. Do I have to mention that the section on the First World War barley mentions Vimy Ridge! In the chapter on the Second World War only two pages are given to the battles that the Canadians took part in. Instead it is a description of women working in the factories.

Come on! Teach me some political and military history too! Thats why I took the class!!!!

A Grand Coalition

If the conservatives, or the liberals get a minority government, there should be serious talk of forming a grand coalition. No, I don't mean between the Liberals and the NDP. What I'm talking about will shake Canadian politics to its core. If the Conservatives get a minority government (which they likely will), Stephen Harper should ask Stephane Dion to form a coalition government. Liberals and Conservatives together in government! Am I crazy? Well, we had one during the second world war! Also, there was a grand coalition in Britain during the depression. There are also countless ones today, with the German CDU-SPD Grand Coalition.

The world is heading towards a deep recession (even though Canada has weather it so far, our time will come, soon). Harper can say that for the sake of the economy the Liberals and Conservatives should join forces, throwing aside the crazy NDP and the increasingly annoying Bloc Quebecois.

The House of Commons will look like this:
Conservatives 120
Liberals 90
Bloc 48
NDP 45

A Conservative-Liberal Government would look like this:

Speaker - Peter Milikin
PM - Stephen Harper
Finance - Jim Flaherty
Foreign Affairs - Michael Ignatieff (he has a similar foreign policy as the CPC and theire no credible one in the CPC Caucus)
Environment/Deputy PM - Stephane Dion
Defence - Peter Mackay
Justice - Rob Nicholson
Public Safety - Stockwell Day
Treasury Board - John Baird
Revenue - John McCullum
Public Works - Scott Brison
Health - Tony Clement
Indian Affairs - Chuck Strahl
Agriculture - Any conservative other than Gerry Ritz
Social Development - Give it to Ken Dryden to make him happy.
Immigration - Diane Finley
Industry - Marc Garneau (if he wins)
Transport - Lawrence Cannon
Fisheries - Some Liberal from Newfoundland
(Give most of the other, low profile portfolios to Liberals).

Now this would be a government that roughly 60% of Canadians voted for. Danny Williams will throw a fit. Jack Layton can realize his dream of being opposition leader, and economic policy will be streamlined through the committees and the Senate.

This would provide for a strong government in uncertain times. the Conservatives and the Liberals would work out a realistic economic plan, and would be in control of Foreign Affairs and the Environment (minus the Green Shift). This would be countered with the conservatives having full control over Justice, Defence and Senate Reform. I'm sure some would be shocked, but many conservatives would swallow it because it would prevent a possible Liberal-NDP coalition, and the Liberals would like it because they would be part of the government.

(Oh and notice that Bob Rae and Ralph Goodale do not have any big portfolios? They're be sent to junior minister jobs if Dion insists on having them in the cabinet.)

Brilliant, or Crazy, what do you think?

The Debate AKA The Kitchen Table Fight

After a few minutes, I realized that this debate is way to rushed and seems too crowded. I personally like the stand up podium style (which is how debates are supposed to be). This format resembles a bunch of people sitting at the kitchen table arguing.

Also, only 45 seconds to respond to a question is ridiculous, I'm in the debate club and we have 5 minutes to respond to a question! (They should at least have a minute and a half- but that's impossible with 5 leaders). I like the head-to-head format that the Americans get to enjoy, but its Canada, what can I say?

New Poll: Liberals and NDP Tied!

Link to follow. CTV Newsnet is reporting a new poll showing the Conservatives with a 19 point lead, with the Liberals and the NDP tied for second place. (Conservative 40%, Liberal 21%, NDP 21%, Bloc 10%). If Harper can regain his early election numbers in Quebec and hold on to his surging Ontario numbers, he will definitely form a majority government. Its all coming down to the debates.

I'm Dissapointed, Dion is BORING!

As someone who follows politics closely and regards elections as some of the most exciting things to watch, I can't help but notice how boring the Liberal campaign is! On the day that the election was called, I had encountered the Liberal campaign bus parked on Parliament Hill. I hung around near the bus for at least half an hour. I was expecting to see Dion (and I assume the 30 other people standing around were hoping to see him too). I soon grew tired of waiting, so I left the Hill and many others did too - not a good thing by the way Dion!).

After about an hour I returned to Parliament Hill and I was surprised to see Dion leaving the Parliament buildings! We all began to clap, but other than giving a little wave, all he did was stand in front of a TV camera, waiting to be interviewed. He just stood there, for 15 minutes, with all of us tourists looking at him. What I'm trying to get at here is that when you're a federal party leader and you have several dozen tourists starring at you, you should at least say a few words to the crowd. To me, this signalled that Dion was uncomfortable with crowds. What I also noticed was that he resembled my Canadian History professor! If this is the image that Canadians have of Dion - a shy, awkward professor, then he has some problems.

Now, I know many of you will be saying that he was probably nervous to be interviewed. I have to admit that after the interview was finished, he came and shook hands (I wished him good luck). However if he only said a few words to us, a few jokes about the media, or the weather, he would have energized the crowd a bit. I was disappointed. Dion did not give a first good impression, and he did nothing to woo my vote. As a result, I can't hid my disappointment in the state of the Liberal party, I like a fight, not a cakewalk! If Dion keeps this up, the election will be very boring, and no one will vote Liberal, or vote at all - remember Ontario 2007? If this is the state of Canada's so called natural governing party, then I think its time for a new one! I hope many others conclude that as well).

P.S. Dion: You don't win votes when all you do is give boring lectures on some complicated carbon tax, its just BORING!

The Conservative Party's State-of-the-Art War Room is Becoming One Big Gaff Machine

The great, disciplined war room that was supposed to be a model for campaign management and propel the conservatives to new heights is so far a dismal failure. Stephen harper has gone through a lot to improve his image and run an effective campaign, but for the second time in a week the war room has produced a gaff that diverted media attention away from the campaign. First it was the ridiculously stupid pooping puffin - what possessed that web designer to do that? (For the rest of Stephen Harper's political life he will likely be caricatured in cartoons with a puffin pooping on his shoulder!) That was not only stupid and juvenile, but it overshadowed the diesel tax announcement! Also, that Not a Leader website serves no purpose to improving Stephen Harper's image.

And then there's the major gaff a top conservative staffer (the same one who was behind that puffin poop) had suggested that the father of a solider killed in Afghanistan criticised the withdrawal plan because he is a liberal supporter (His criticism of the withdrawal policy is legitimate by the way!) Also, the RCMP being called in to stop reporters from asking Harper questions destroyed any respect he had earned them by breakfasting with them. This had all overshadowed a two-pronged attack delivered by Jack Layton and Stephen Harper on Stephane Dion's Carbon Tax.

Its not that these gaffs help Dion, his campaign is in disarray. These gaffs are threatening to derail the conservative campaign. That Conservative War Room better get its act together, the conservative campaign can't afford any more gaffs!

And They're Off..

The campaign is about to start and the only parties that are starting off on a strong footing are the NDP and the Conservatives. The NDP is seizing the high popularity of Jack Layton, portraying him as a potential Prime Minister! Also, the NDP is planing on a huge advertising blitz this campaign, and apparently they will skip over the Liberals and directly attack Stephen Harper.

I'm not underestimating Dion and the Liberals, but the start of their campaign is an embarrassment to their party. The Liberals do not have a campaign plane ready. The plane that they have rented is an Air Inuit Boeing 737 built in 1979! No offence to Air Inuit, but a plane from 1979 is not necessarily very fuel efficient - I can only see the political cartoons...Dion flying on a gas guzzler while proposing a carbon tax...that is embarrassing and stupid! Maybe they did not intend on renting that plane, but it was the only thing they can afford. Also, if the Green Shift was implemented, that plane would probably be too expensive to operate, and if Air Inuit only has planes like that, Dion's Green Shift, if implemented, would probably bankrupt them!

Now to the Conservatives. They are showcasing Stephen Harper, and their message of it being unwise to risk a change of government is an effective one when we're on the verge of a recession. Stephan Dion's plan of attack is a godsend for the Conservatives. So far, he has tried to compare Stephen Harper with George Bush, which is ludicrous, and when Dion says that voters have to stop Harper from forming a majority he basically admits defeat.

It is to early to call this race, but by the way its starting up, the Liberals look like they are not just going to have a bumpy ride on their campaign plane!