In 25 to 50 years how will will history judge Stephen Harper? Well, it depends on the outcome.
A Conservative majority government would mark a significant shift in the political allegiances of Canadians. When Stephen Harper became Canadian Alliance leader that party was in decline. Similar to the PCs, the Alliance was polling at around 15 %. Paul Martin was supposed to lead the Liberals to the largest majority government in history, destroying the NDP and PC party and reducing the Bloc and the Alliance to a small group in the corner. Now here we are 5 years later, the Conservatives are heading to their second mandate and the Liberal are on the verge of bankruptcy.
I'm not going to discus the factors that led to this (if I did that post would be way too long). The point that I am trying to make that a Conservative majority government would probably mark the death of the Liberal Party and finally complete the "unite the right" process. Stephen Harper will be regarded in political science textbooks as Canada's greatest political leader who lead the Canadian centre-right out of the abyss and destroyed the Liberal Party. Looking back on the Canadian political events of the early 21st century, historians and political scientists will remark in amazement at the greatest reversal of political forces. There will probably be a book called the Decline and Fall of the Liberal Party (the decline I believe began in 1984.)
Now, enough speculation. It is more likely that Canadians will elect a Conservative minority government. If this happens, Harper will go down in history, not as the greatest political leader in Canadian history, just as the guy who led the centre-right out of the abyss (which is a good consolation prize I guess). The title of 'Liberal Party killer' would be handed to both Jack Layton and Elizabeth May.
Many in the future would speculate that if the Conservative Party had a leader other than Stephen Harper, they would have been handed a majority government in 2006. It is easy to say that, but we have to look at the facts. If Harper never ran for Canadian Alliance leader, that party would have disintegrated and would have probably re-emerged as a small Alberta protest party. Peter MacKay's PCs would be the only mainstream party that has some centre-right credentials. I think its safe to say that Peter MacKay as Progressive Conservative leader could have never formed a majority government, let alone a minority (its not his fault, it was the PC Party).
No matter what tonight's outcome is, one thing has to be remembered, only Harper could unite the right. History will judge him accordingly.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
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9 comments:
I too believe that today is a turning point for Canadians politics. I also agree it is a turning point for Stephen Harper and the Conservative party. At this point, I have no idea what is going to happen, the polls have been so skewed that I have stopped paying attention. Ideally, of course, I would like to see a Conservative majority but am not sure that is within our grasp.
As you state, the Liberals are bankrupt both in more that dollars and sense. The NDP may do better than last time but they are still the most left-leaning party in Canada and will never, ever form a government. The Green party are in utter disarray with the tantamount defection of their chief spokesperson to the Liberal camp.
If it is a minority government, the only comfort to be found is that none of the partys will be able to fund another campaign for several years.
History, indeed, is in the making.
And the Bloc which can never form a government was allowed by the Liberal Party to serve as Official Opposition and has never looked back.
This will be the sixth election in which the Bloc has taken part. Of course on the hustings they are supported by the personnel and money of the Parti Quebecois, plus our taypayers money (no one mentions the former).
The only way to get a majority government in Canada it seems is to have a leader from Quebec. And as Quebec doesn't elect many conservatives, where are our future leaders to come from. Perhaps New Brunswick. Anyway this must be very frustrating for the West, not to mention Conservatives in Ontario.
The belief was that Maxime Bernier would take over form Harper. That's out the window now.
So did you vote yet or not... and if not why not?
I can't vote, I'm 17!
More than a bit melodramatic, aren't we..... the "end of the Liberal party", huh?
I wish. But it's not gonna happen. That brand is just too strong. Here in our own little echo chamber we rant and rave about the Liberals and their elitist amoral corrupt approach, but out there in the real world the word "liberal" is not a swear-word just yet.
Harper gets huge kudos for what he has accomplished. I never would have imagined it possible 10 years ago. But to pretend that a capable liberal leader couldn't come along and snatch things away from us is self delusion. Truth is that with such a buffoon like Dion, we should have crushed the Liberals, but we will not.
I see the upcoming CPC minority mandate as a chance, perhaps the last one, to convince centre right Liberals that they do not need to mistrust the CPC. The next election will be fought against Ignatieff or Rae, and will be much more of a challenge.
We arrogantly write off the Liberals at our own peril. I believe the Liberals did the same to us not too long ago.
I predict that PMSH reaches across the isle, and invites (Federal , no Bloc) MPs elected in Quebec, regardless of and while retaining their political stripe,
to form a special cabinet on Quebec issues in a United Canada.
This in essence will be a coalition.
The left is in more need of uniting than the right is. The Greens, NDP and Liberals took the majority of the vote. A lower majority than usual, but still a majority.
Now, the Liberals aren't as far left as the other two parties there, and they often have some centre-right ideas, but in general Canada does seem to lean to the left. If the leftist parties were to combine forces.
Of course, that would be hard to do. I'd be pretty disappointed if the NDP and Green parties merged into the Liberal group. But I'd like to see the more liberal side reinvent itself in the way that the conservatives have.
well canadian politics has changed
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